More NHL 2009 Playoff Predictions

My predictions for the quarter-finals were about as wrong as they could have been. My only success was in predicting that the Chicago Blackhawks would defeat the Vancouver Canucks. In the three other series I was completely wrong. At least it took seven games to decide each of those three series, so I can claim that I was not completely out to lunch. However, that was then and this is now. So, here are my predictions for the two semi-final series.

• Pittsburgh vs Carolina. There is no question where my loyalties lie here. I want Pittsburgh to win this. They have a strong team. They have just come out of a series with one of the best teams in the league. They want to make up for losing to Detroit in the finals last year. They have the potential to win the Stanley Cup this year. However, Carolina has consistently surprised everyone by winning games. They are this year's Cinderella team, and it never pays to bet against Cinderella teams. They make it to the finals more often than they should based on their records during the regular season. However, Carolina is just not that good a team. They have played well in the playoffs, and deserve to be where they are, but I have trouble seeing them get past the Penguins. So, I will bravely predict that Pittsburgh will win this series in a long, hard-fought series of battles.
• Detroit vs Chicago. This is another Cinderella team playing a heavily-favoured team. Chicago is a team on the rise, and they will be a force to be reckoned with in a year or two, but Detroit is just too strong. Chicago is about to face reality and will probably be out fairly quickly. I predict that Detroit will have little trouble winning this

NHL Quarter Finals Predictions

Here are my predictions for the second round of the 2009 NHL playoffs.

• Boston vs Carolina -- Boston should not have too much trouble here. My only concern is that Boston may have become a bit rusty while they waited for Carolina to wear away at the Devils. However, Boston is a fundamentally strong team, while Caroline is a fundamentally average team that has been on a hot steak recently. I do not expect Carolina's streak to continue.
• Washington vs Pittsburgh -- This is going to be a great series, and it could go either way. I am rooting for the Caps, so I am going to predict that they will win, but it will be a long, hard slog.
• Detroit vs Anaheim -- Detroit is the heavy favourite here, but the Ducks will surprise everyone and knock them out.
• Vancouver vs Chicago -- Vancouver has a history of falling apart when it matters. I am a little surprised that they have even made it this far, so I will be even more surprised if they get past Chicago. I predict that the Black Hawks will eventually win this series.

2009 NHL Playoff Predictions

Here are my predictions for the first round of the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

• Boston vs Montréal -- Boston, but it will be a nail biter, and I will be rooting for Montréal.
• Washington vs New York Rangers -- The Caps will win this one without too much difficulty.
• New Jersey vs Carolina -- Carolina may pull off a surprise, but I predict that the Devils will ultimately win it. In a perfect world both teams would lose.
• Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh -- Pittsburgh will discover that they actually have talent and pull off a win.

• San Jose vs Anaheim -- This will be the big upset series. San Jose will lose, and probably lose convincingly.
• Detroit vs Columbus -- Don't let the regular season fool you, Detroit will walk all over Columbus, much to my disappointment.
• Vancouver vs St Louis -- Vancouver never fails to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. I do not expect this year to be any different. St Louis will win.
• Calgary at Chicago -- Chicago is a team on the rise, but I do not think that this is the year that they rise out of the first round. Calgary will win.

So, Do yo agree with me? Let's see how well I do, and don't forget to visit my sponsors.

Go Caps

The Washington Capitals won their division yesterday, but they did it in a very unsatisfying way. They lost a game in an overtime shootout. The NHL awards one point to a team that loses a regular season game in overtime, so the Caps got one point. That unsatisfying point was enough to clinch the Southeast Division, which guarantees that the Caps will place at least third in the Eastern Conference. I would have liked to see them win the conference, but that is almost certainly impossible at this point. So, let's hope that they take the rest of this week to pull themselves together for a play-off run. I expect the Caps to make it to the quarter-finals, and perhaps even the semis, but I doubt that they will make it further than that. Their play has been off for the past few weeks, and they are going to be up against some stiff opposition. However, let's hope that I am wrong that that the Caps bring Lord Stanely's Cup to DC. Go Caps!

The NHL Shoot Out

The Hockey News has a blog entry on the shoot out that nicely agrees with most of my thoughts on the NHL's shoot out. The shoot out was put in place after the Great Lock Out of 2005-2005. It was intended to be a way of ensuring that every game had a winner and a loser. There were two problems with this idea. The first was the assumption that the fans wanted a winner and a loser for every game. Many fans were quite happy to award a tie if the two teams both played well and deserved a tie. The second was the idea that shoot outs were a fair and exciting way of determining who won a close game. They are not fair. The odds of scoring in a one-on-goalie situation are about fifty-fifty. The goalie either guesses what the skater is going to do and stops the puck, or he does not. In many ways shoot outs are little more than a coin toss.

It is the exciting part that I want to type about today. The above-mentioned blog entry makes the point that fans love the shoot out. I hate to admit it, but that is true. And it is not just the NASCAR cross-over fans that love it, it is the life-long hockey fans who have have taken to it too. I realize that many fans still hate the shoot out. Some refuse to watch it. Others are waiting fot the day that Gary Bettman gets run over at a Zamboni crossing so that things can go back to the way that they were in the mythical glory days of hockey (which usually means when the speaker was ten years old). However, the reality is that the shoot out has proved to be popular amongst a wide swath of hockey fans. It is unlikely to go away, and people will miss it when it does. Even I have to admit that it is fun to watch.

I still dislike shoot outs. I would rather see regular season games that end in a tie after three periods be declared a tie. No five minute overtime. No shoot out. Play-off games should continue the way that the are with teams playing until someone scores the winning goal. However, if the shoot out does stay, I am not going to lose sleep over it.

The Washington Capitals Need a New Logo

The Hockey News has decided to rank the logos of the thirty NHL teams. The team logo ranks reflect only the opinions of The Hockey News editors, but it is an interesting list. The first thing that caught my eye is that The Washington Capitals rank 22^nd in a league of thirty teams. The reason give is

"Love the uniform, love the secondary eagle logo, but we need more than words for the primary."

After getting over the disappointment of my favourite team being ranked in the bottom half of the league I realized that The Hockey News was right (as they so often are). The Capital's logo is boring. A hockey stick stuck in the middle of the name of the team does not stir feelings of pride. In fact, I barely notice it. The classic logos, such at Montréal's and Boston's are emblematic. They have come to signify not just the team, but hockey itself. Now asking that The Washington Capitals be a team that is synonymous with hockey is asking a lot. In fact, given that most people in the DC area care more about bowling and poker than they do about hockey, it is even a bit silly. Still, the Caps have Alexander Ovechkin, who is perhaps the most recognizable name in hockey today, and he has signed on with the Caps for the long haul. Any attempt to build a fan base around Ovechkin is going to involve turning the Caps into one of the NHL's signature teams. To do that the Caps need a better logo. Come on fans, put on your thinking caps and let's see some ideas. After all, there is not much else to do sportswise in August.

Detroit and Octopus Abuse

I am watching the Pittsburgh Penguins lose game six of the Stanley Cup Finals, and I am not happy about it. In general I do not care much for the Penguins. They have a silly name, and I do not consider Sidney Crosby to be the greatest thing to ever happen to hockey. He is a great player, and he is on track to become one of the game's superstars, but I am really tired of him being the face of hockey, and the saviour of the NHL. The NHL does not need a face, or a saviour. It needs to remember who its fans are and make sure that the games excite those fans. Hockey is not NASCAR. Hockey is not poker. Hockey is not the NBA. So stop trying to be. The fans of car racing, card games, and hardwood courts are not going to become fans of hockey. The sports are too different and appeal to very different demographics. The NHL needs to understand this. However, I doubt that that is going to happen while Gary Bettman is running the league.

Anyhow, enough about the state of the National Hockey League. What I really want to say is that I am feeling disappointed that Pittsburgh is probably going to lose to Detroit tonight, which will give Detroit the Stanley Cup. I really hate Detroit. This hatred dates back to when I was short and the Red Wings used to beat the Vancouver Canucks. In fact, in the 1970s, the Red Wings did not just defeat the Canucks, they humiliated them in almost every game that they played. Three decades have not healed those wounds. However, what really burns me up about Detroit is their blatant octopus abuse. It is a tradition in the motor city to toss an octopus onto the ice to celebrate goals, wins, and good fights. This is not acceptable. Octopuses are meant to be admired, either while diving, or at an aquarium. Octopuses are not meant to be sprawled across a sheet of ice. So, while I generally like the concept of traditions, this is one tradition that needs to end.

Hockey Sadness

The Washington Capitals are out. The New York Rangers are out. The Montréal Canadiens are out. The Vancouver Canucks did not even make it in. All of my favourite teams are being systematically eliminated in this year's Stanley Cup race. The only team left that I really care about is the Philadelphia Flyers. So far, they have done very well. The eliminated both Washington and Montréal, but I suspect that they are not going to be so lucky when they face off against Sidney Crosby and the streaking Pittsburgh Penguins later this week. The Flyers have gotten as far as they have by being a scrappy team, and by riding the outstanding goaltending of Martin Biron. However, they have also been lucky. They barely beat the Capitals in teh first round, and the Capitals only barely made the playoffs themselves. They also got lucky when they faced a Montréal team that played well below their capability in the quarter-finals. They will not be so luck against Pittsburgh. So, while I will be rooting for the Flyers, my prediction is that the Penguins will end up representing the East in the Stanley Cup finals.

The Capitals are in Trouble

Well, what can I say about the Caps now? They barely staved off elimination on Saturday, and have generally played like a team that is looking forward to the golf course. The Philadelphia Flyers are a tough team, and were vastly underrated going into the playoffs, but the Capitals should have been able to make it a close series. But what have they done? They folded. They barely won the first game, and did not deserve to. Then they lost the next three, and deserved to. Now, they have managed to force a sixth game, but I am not optimistic that they can win it. The Flyers are hungry, and they are playing that way. The Capitals do not seem to have that hunger. I hope that I am wrong. Please Caps! Prove me wrong!

The Caps Did It!

I got back from a week in Los Angeles on Friday evening. I was there for the High Energy Astrophysics Division meeting, a meeting of the US high-energy astronomy community, of which I have found myself a part for the past five years. All in all it was a good week, and I learned a lot there. Some of what I learned was scientific, and some of it was political. High-energy astronomers can be a self-absorbed group at times. This is not meant to be a knock at the people I work with, but a comment on how easy it is to forget that there is a bigger world out there than what we see on a day-to-day basis. And part of that bigger world has blossomed into the Washington Capitals making their first playoff run in several years!

Last night, while I was enjoying the best meatloaf that I have ever eaten, the Capitals defeated the Florida Panthers to secure first place in the NHL's southeast division. Now, being first in the NHL's southeast division is akin to being the smartest member of the US Republican party, but it does guarantee a berth in the playoffs. The NHL's odd seeding structure guarantees that a division winner gets one of the top three seeds in each conference. So, Washington won the third seed when, if they had had to compete based on points alone, they would have barely slunk into the eighth seed. But I am not complaining. The Caps are in the playoffs, and I spent all of today doing happy dances. I get to grow a playoff beard this year!

So, now that the Caps are in the playoffs, what are their chances? How far are they going to go? To be honest, I do not expect them to make it out of the first round. The Caps have a lot going for them. They are a young team with a lot of talent; they are on a roll, having won 11 of their last 12 games; and they are going to be playing the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round. However, many of those 11 victories where tough slogs where the Capitals barely won.  They have often had to overcome poor playing early in the game.  They will not have the luxury of doing this in the playoffs.  The Caps have split the season series against the Flyers, and the Flyers have been fighting hard to make it into the playoffs themselves. Despite their recent problems, though, the boys from Philly have a fundamentally strong team that has the ability to defeat the Capitals. I suspect that they will. The season series looked like this.

Nov 2	Phi 3	at	Was 2	loss
Nov 23	Was 4	at	Phi 3	OT win
Jan 13	Phi 6	at	Was 4	loss
Feb 6	Was 4	at	Phi 3	win

There you have it. The Caps lost two games in regulation time, won one in regulation, and won one in overtime. That is not a record that inspires confidence. I hope that the Caps can pull it off. It would do wonders for the team to make it into the quarter-finals, and having Ovechkin playing for more than one round would be a publicity coup for the NHL. In a perfect world the Penguins and the Capitals will play in one of the rounds so that the world can see several games of Crosby vs Ovechkin. That would settle once and for all who is the better player. My money is on our favourite Russian.

So, bring on the first round!

Go Caps!

It's time for me to do another happy dance!

Three Weeks and Three Points to Go

The NHL season has three weeks to go, and the Capitals are still in the playoff race. Of course, they are barely in it, but there is still a chance that Ovechkin and Kozig and the boys can make it into the postseason. And once they get there anything can happen. The Caps won their game against Boston this afternoon by the score of 2 to 1 in the shootout. They are not play all that well, but they managed to pull off a win and get two points. Combined with the Fliers' disastrous performance against the Penguins earlier in the day the Caps are not only two points behind Philadelphia. That means that they only need to make up three points to secure the eight and final playoff spot in the East.

Can they do it? To be honest, I doubt it. The Fliers are in the middle of self-destructing, but they do have a fundamentally good team, so if they just rediscover that they can pull through. The Capitals are playing well, but they are still a weak team in some ways. They tend to choke, and they do not have any experience in desperate attempts to make it into the playoffs. I hope that I am wrong, but I am worried. So, it is going to be an exciting ride for the next three weeks. With luck, I will be growing a playoff beard this year.

A Short, Meaningless Note on the Capitals

The Capitals have 16 games left, and they are three points out of first place in the anemic Southeast division. They have the talent and the ability to win the division, but I worry that they do not want it badly enough.

Hockey without the Passion: What's the Point

The November 2007 issue of Forbes Magazine has an article on the Toronto Maples Leafs, from the point of view of team valuation. I picked up the magazine and eagerly anticipated reading something about hockey. After all, hockey is the greatest sport in the world, and is very close to being the greatest thing in the world too. After reading the article I must say that Forbes managed to completely miss the point. Hockey is not about dollars and investments. Hockey is about passion and grit and the unique crunch of a well-delivered body check. The Forbes article managed to reduce the greatest game on Earth to something that made me yawn.

Forbes has a great Web site. It reports the daily news well. However, the magazine is a bore. I am truly regretting subscribing to it.

What's with the Capitals?

This has been a tough year to be a Washington Capitals fan. The team has not only stumbled badly, they have been boring to watch, and do not seem interested in playing the game. True, they have suffered from so many injuries since October that I have lost track, but their real problem seems to be that they have just lost interest in hockey. Watching a Capitals game is not fun, it is tedious. I wish that I had some good advice to give the team, but I do not. All that I can say to the players is to get out on the ice and play every shift as if it were the one that history will remember. If they play for the sheer joy of playing, and check their egos at the gate, they just may be able to recover something of this season. The Caps have the raw talent, they just need to learn to use it. I still have hope.

0.500 Hockey in the Preseason

The Washington Capitals had a decent preseason this year, but it could have been better. They won three, lost three, and lost a fourth in overtime. Due to the NHL's slightly wacky point system losing in overtime is worth a single point in the standings, so overtime losses are tracked separately from losses in regulation time. Is this a good thing? I do not know. Personally I would have a point system where a loss is worth zero points, regardless of how the loss occurred. This would encourage teams to play for a win, or at least a tie. Under the present system there is less incentive for a team to play hard in overtime because the team is guaranteed at least one point regardless of what happens. However, I do not feel so strongly about it that I am going to let it ruin my enjoyment of overtime hockey.

The Caps' record in their 2007 preseason games is:

GP	W	L	OT	GF	GA	PTs	Pct
7	3	3	1	21	21	7	0.500

0.500 hockey is not a bad thing in the preseason. The object of these games is not to win points as much as it is to see how different players perform, and to experiment with different lines. From that point of view the Caps did not do too badly. Their games were:

• Sep 30: Ott 2 at Was 1 Loss
• Sep 28: Phi 5 at Was 7 Win
• Sep 26: Was 1 at Phi 2 Loss
• Sep 25: Car 2 at Was 3 Win
• Sep 22: Was 2 at TB 1 Win
• Sep 20: Was 4 at Ott 5 Loss
• Sep 16: Was 3 at Car 4 OT Loss

Bring on the regular season!

RIP Ken Danby 1940-2007

Ken Danby, who painted the iconic goalie shown above, has died.

NHL 2008 Outdoor Game

The NHL is going to hold an outdoor game in Buffalo on New Years Day 2008. The Buffalo Sabres and the Pittsburg Penguins will face off unprotected against the elements, which in Buffalo can be rather brutal in January. The is the second outdoor game that the NHL has held in the modern era. The first was in 2003 in Edmonton, and it is generally regarded as being a great success. The game sold out, tv rating were at an all-time high (at least in Canada), and the players enjoyed playing outdoors. So, it is not surprising that the NHL is doing it again. This time they have picked a safe American market to try and generate a bit of interest south of the border. Buffalo is a good choice because it is a true hockey town. The game sold out in less than half-an-hour, and it is already generating a buzz in the Buffalo media.

The idea of playing an outdoor game, and having it count in the standings, has proven to be a bit controversial. Some, such as the Toronto Star have claimed that an outdoor game is absurd. However, I suspect that this is partly a case of sour grapes because Toronto did not get the game. My opinion is that playing a game outside is a great idea. Yes, it is a gimmick. Yes, depending on the wind one team could be at a distinct disadvantage, and yes, fans may have to sit in sleet and snow to watch the game, but these are the things that make hockey games legendary. Does anyone remember any games from the 1975 Flyers--Sabres series other than the infamous "Fog Game"? How many games do you remember from 2003? I will bet that the outdoor game is one of them.

So, play a game outside. Have it count in the standings. Three points in January will not make a lot of difference. Give the fans in Buffalo something that they will remember for the rest of their lives. But sorry Buffalo, I will be rooting for the Penguins.

First Loss of the Season

The Washington Capitals lost their first game of the new season this afternoon. Admittedly, it was only a preseason game, but it was their first game since last April and if you are superstitious like me the first game played sets the stage for the rest of the year. Washington lost to Carolina 4-3 in overtime. The Caps played well for most of the game, but they fell apart when it counted: in sudden death. This is reminiscent of one of the Caps big problems last season, they lost games due to shoot-outs and sudden death. It was disappointing to see them still having the same problems this year. Still, Sunday's game was just an exhibition game. It counted for nothing, except perhaps karma. Washington was experimenting with their lines, and did not play some of their better players. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, did. So, pulling off a tie at the end of regulation is not a bad accomplishment.

Next up for the Capitals is a match against the Ottawa Senators in Ottawa. This will be a hard game to win if the Senators take the game seriously. The Senators have a strong team, and are quite capable of winning the East this season. The Caps will have their hands full with them. The game is on Thursday, 20 September in Ottawa at 1900 EDT. Sadly, it will not be on tv in the DC area.

Are they Contenders?

It is only about three weeks until training camps start across the NHL. Like most sane sports fans I can hardly wait. August is definitely the horse latitudes of professional sports. All that is happening in Canada and the US is baseball, and we all know how boring baseball games are to watch. Football fans have the NFL's preseason to savour, but personally I find the NFL to be even worse than baseball. I am probably the only person in North America who did not know about the Michael Vick Affair until a few days ago. I just have no interest in the North American version of football.

So, I spend my Augusts looking forward to the day that players across the continent don their skates and start the rituals of NHL training camp. And, like most sports fans, I dream about the local hockey team and fantasize about their chances at winning the Stanley Cup. The Washington Capitals are in the middle of a serious bout of rebuilding. They came out of the Great Lock-Out as the worst team in the league, and have been struggling to improve since then. Fortunately, the Caps has paid attention to the basics, such as building a strong farm system, drafting well, and developing young players, and now their patience over the past two years is about to pay off.

"We've got the makings of being a very good team for a long time," said goalie Olie Kolzag in an interview with the Washington Post a few days ago, and I tend to agree with him. The Caps have signed several free agents over the Summer who have the potential to fill some significant gaps in the Caps' line-up. Michael Nylander, Tom Poti, and Viktor Kozlov were signed over the past couple of months and should fit in well. All three bring strong records and strong work ethics to the team. In addition regulars like Olie Kolzig and Alexander Ovechkin will be around for 2007-2008. The Caps did well in the first half of last season before falling apart after Christmas. I do not think that this will happen this season. The younger players will have learned from experience to pace themselves, and the new veterans will have the experience to guide the team through any mid-season slump. I am not expecting the Caps to win the Cup this season, but I would not be at all surprised to see them make a strong play-off run this year.

The Capitals Training Camp

The Washington Capitals 2007 training camp is scheduled to open on 14 Sep 2007 at the brand new Kettler Capitals Iceplex. This is the Caps first year in their new training facility, and it will be interesting to see if it has any affect on the team. Training camps are usually rather boring for all but the most hardcore fans, but they are a critical part of the preparations for the new season. For a team training camp is a chance to evaluate new players (and the veterans), and to try out new lines, tactics, and strategies. For the fan training camp is a great opportunity to evaluate where individual players should rank in fantasy leagues.

Capitals training camp will be open to the public, and there will be no charge to get it. For those of you who, like me, are unfortunate enough to live in the Washington, DC area the Kettler Capitals Iceplex can be reached by Metro. Take the Orange Line to the Ballston-MU station. From there, one can walk to the complex. Exit the Ballston station and proceed straight ahead through the doors under the sign “Ballston Metro Center”. Stay right and go up the escalator. Go straight through the glass doors and across the covered bridge. Follow the signs to Ballston Common Mall and Regal Cinema. Stay right and go through the glass doors and across the second covered bridge. Enter Ballston Common Mall and proceed to the garage elevators. I'll see you there.